# Prediction 1: The fight for talent continues, but the strategy shifts

- **Episode:** [18](https://agents.truthliesandwork.com/episodes/18.md) (2022-12-29)
- **Type:** other
- **Tags:** talent, recruitment, strategy
- **Time:** 5:08–12:14 (start 308s)
- **Listen:** [https://truthliesandwork.com/18?t=308](https://truthliesandwork.com/18?t=308)

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[5:08] Leanne Elliott: My first prediction is that the fight for talent will continue, but I think the strategy will shift
[5:16] Al Elliott: Hmm
[5:17] Leanne Elliott: And I think it's gonna shift in a way that is more sustainable and in a way that is more competency-based. So let, let me just, gimme some context behind this thinking
[5:28] Al Elliott: Mm-hmm
[5:28] Leanne Elliott: 2022, it was a bidding war for talent. Salaries were going up. We were hearing of clients who were having people like pull out after they signed that contract because they had a counteroffer for more money. It was it was a war for talent, not than a fight. It was a war for talent. But I think I think that's understandable given you know the the great resignation, the big shifts that we saw post pandemic. I think there is going to be a correction, and I think. Whereas the power has very much been with a candidate, in particularly the latter end of 2022. I think that's gonna correct itself and shift a little bit more towards business owners. And I think as well, you know, with the economic downturn that is being predicted, I think people are gonna start to be a bit more cautious, a bit more careful around—
[6:21] Al Elliott: When you say people are a bit more cautious, you mean that people applying for jobs, employees?
[6:25] Leanne Elliott: Yes, yeah, candidates, employees, gonna be a bit more cautious, maybe a bit more, I don't know, I guess a bit more motivation to stay put. And again, I come back to this correction, and this is what Aaron said on our podcast when talking about the, the tech downturn, when we're talking about the Twitter layoffs. And I think that's a really valid point in so many different areas, is that, you know, during the pandemic, turnover was very, very low because people understandably weren't sure about how they'd find another job or what that would look like. Um, so I think really we just saw that correction this year. I think the Great Resignation was really just the normal amount of turnover we would have seen during the pandemic, um, kind of catch up and all happen at once. But I think at the same time, there's gonna— I think there's gonna be a pushback from HR leaders, from people and culture practitioners to managers saying, what do you actually need in a person in terms of their skills, their knowledge, their competencies, their abilities to actually do this job? Let's not dream that we can now go around recruiting superstars for every single role. What do you actually need in a person to do this job? So I think we're going to see a massive increase in job analysis, which is understanding the actual role that is needed within a business to contribute positively. I think we're going to see an uptick in more data-led recruitment strategies. Um, and I think as well, I saw a statistic, I think it was Gartner, that it was like 36% of recruiters and HR leaders were saying that currently they didn't think their recruitment strategy was sufficient in that it was working. We've talked about this before on the podcast. Go back and listen if you're interested. Recruitment is science. It's the most sciency thing we can do in people and culture. If you want something tangible to, to get your, get your arms around, it's recruitment. Um, so I think we're going to see a lot more data-led recruitment, much more use of psychometrics, and I think as well, critically, we're going to see organizations Engaging more in rolling recruitment. So organisations are gonna always be actively recruiting
[8:32] Al Elliott: Yeah, you've been a big proponent of internal recruitment or internal talent pools, which, if I've understood what it means, is that you, like you say, you're rolling recruitment and then you get someone who's really good and go, look, we've not got a position for you, but I'm gonna work really hard to find a position for you, rather than recruiting when you actually need it
[8:49] Leanne Elliott: Yeah, and not just internally, externally as well. I think particularly if you have roles within your business that are a constant. You're always going to have that role in your business, um, that typically have a higher turnover. So probably roles that are lower down in terms of, of salary and hierarchy, um, where you're always going to need people in it. So for example, I don't know, like, um, if you're an accountancy firm working, then maybe your kind of entry-level accountants, um, or your bookkeepers or whatever you call them, um, you're always gonna have that role in your business and you're typically going to see a higher turnover
[9:25] Al Elliott: Yeah
[9:27] Leanne Elliott: turnover, because these people are, you know, at the early stage of their career, and developmentally, they're going to move every 2 to 5 years. And this isn't a new thing. You know, call centres use this a lot typically because of the high turnover rates. So, I think we're going to see businesses engage much more in rolling recruitment. And as I said, creating these talent pools. So, we've filled all the roles, but you've met every standard we needed you to. We'd love to keep your, your name on record, and the minute we have a position, would you be interested in us contacting you? Um, I've done that with clients before. It works really well, massively reduces your, your time to fill in the future. Um, I think it's just a smart, sustainable way of always, you know, making sure that you've got great people coming into your business
[10:12] Al Elliott: Now, in a second, I'm gonna ask you to summarise that in one sentence, your prediction. But in the meantime, while you're thinking about that, because I've just sprung that on you, Is that— It's interesting to hear the, a lot of the sort of investment talk where what you're saying there is correction. You're saying that, you know, there's a lot of, and I think what's really interesting is that if you are an investor in any, of any kind, whether it be crypto, equities, whatever, then I don't think there's more of a demonstration of human nature than looking at stocks and shares over a period of time because they don't follow They don't follow the logic. So for example, if we use that analogy, which I don't know a great deal about stocks and shares, but if we say that there's been a bull run recently in terms of salaries, then, you know, you go, well, there's gotta be a correction of that because like in, in every single market there is a correction. God, I, I look at my crypto wallet these days and I know there's definitely been a correction in that
[11:07] Leanne Elliott: Crying into your gin over Christmas over that one, love, weren't you?
[11:10] Al Elliott: Well, I think a lot before that, but, but anyway, moving away from My, from, from my massive losses in crypto. But I think it is really interesting. So what we're talking about there is there is a supply— this is a supply and demand market, uh, is recruitment. It's as simple as that. There's a supply and demand. And then it felt like there was, there was a retraction in supply, a retraction in demand, therefore the supply. Um, yeah. So therefore what salaries had to go— I had to check it, look over at Leanne and check I was saying it right. So I think it's really interesting to think of it in terms of that. And now we are getting this correction. Now people, you know, who were very bullish on getting a new job 6 months ago might not be quite so confident going into 2023, which can obviously be good. But then, you know, there's, there's ways that you can manage that and make it even better for people to stay in your organization. So do you have a nice succinct summary for us for prediction number 1?
[12:02] Leanne Elliott: I think the fight for talent will continue, but the strategy will shift and there'll be a much bigger focus on perfecting— this isn't really a one-liner, is it?